Unitarian Universalists for a Just Economic Community

Global Warming vs Resource Limits by Dick Burkhart A Review of "The Suicidal Planet" by Hillman, Fawcett, and Rajan The Suicidal Planet not only really lays it on the line (we must act in powerful ways very soon to slow down global warming), it also suggests some powerful techniques to get there. Equity and markets are often see at odds, but the proposed 'tradable personal carbon allowances' actually creates markets to force equitable long term reductions in carbon emissions. This would supplement 'cap and trade' systems for industries at national or regional levels, while a similar contraction and convergence scheme would operate between countries at the global level. At the personal level, everyone would get a fixed carbon allowance for a fixed time period. If they used less then their allowance during that period, they could automatically sell the unused part on a computerized market to someone who needed more. Both seller and buyer would have strong incentives to reduce their carbon emissions, as the seller would profit by doing so, while the buyer would suffer less of a penalty. Moreover the sellers would tend to be poorer, and the buyers richer, hence the majority of citizens would become powerfully invested in the campaign to slow, and eventually reverse, global warming. Carbon taxes, by contrast, often face strong popular resistance due to their perceived inequity. But the authors should consider that an equitable carbon tax would be a sales tax on the transactions of the computerized market. The revenues could then be used help needy individuals and small businesses to reduce their carbon emissions. In addition, small businesses could be included in the computerized market based on the number of full time employees or something similar. These concepts have been developed in Europe, especially Britain, where two of the authors work as researchers. Europe has moved ahead of the US on environmental issues over the last couple of decades, also on some social justice and equity issues. However the authors go to far in regard to equity with the contraction and convergence scheme. Contraction means an international treaty that sets a binding schedule for the global reduction in carbon emissions to a 'safe' level over the next few decades. Fantastic if you can get agreement and can come up with a reliable enforcement mechanism. Convergence means that at the end of the contraction, the citizens of each country or negotiating regions will have the same average per capita carbon emissions as every other country. This would be a powerful way to enlist the enthusiasm of the poorer countries, as they would actually be allowed to increase their per capita carbon emissions until they matched the reduction in carbon emission of the rich countries. The problem with this convergence scheme is that it ignores the population explosion. Many scholars of global resources consider the current world population to be far in excess of a sustainable population, that an orderly to reduction to one or two billion will be necessary, or we will experience severe "ecological overshoot and collapse". Already many resources are severely depleted, even renewable ones like forests and fisheries. Water wars are forecast and oil wars are already occurring. World oil production is stagnating now and within a decade it will be in serious decline, past 'peak oil', with the global economy not far behind. The authors make a big point in chapter 3 "Eyes Wide Shut" that most people are barely at the awareness stage, far short of action, in dealing with global warming. Yet the authors themselves show little awareness of the severity and consequences of these resource issues. They appear to be unaware, for example, that certain estimates of oil 'reserves' are many times in excess of what experienced oil geologists consider to be economically recoverable, even with improved technology. The imminent decline of oil will shift the economic focus to coal, which may hold out for a few more decades before it too goes into decline, despite current claims that coal 'reserves' will last hundreds of years. This will become the major political/economic battle of the coming generation: Take global warming seriously or burn ever more coal in a futile effort to maintain our non-negotiable life styles. Equity means nothing if human civilization collapses or extreme poverty for all, so the current notion of convergence must be replaced a technique that reduces both carbon emissions and population. Of necessity the carbon reduction part must focus on the first world, while the population reduction part must focus on the third world. However the goal is the same: average equal carbon emissions per capita between all regions of the world. But to get there the incentives must change. A good way would be to set a per capita target for carbon emissions based on population. Let T = target for a safe level of global carbon emissions / target for a sustainable level of world population. Then T becomes the per capita target for each country or region, to be reached however they so choose. When people think of radical population reduction, they often think of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. But, given a little time, there is a perfectly benign way. To be sure it would require a major cultural shift in some regions, with an extensive media campaign and leadership from all major sectors, including religion. But it is possible. If all women, on the average, have only one child, and that child, on the average is born in the mother's mid thirties, then the population will be reduced by a factor of 4 in 80 to 100 years. Thus both family size and spacing are the key here. When there is a will there is a way. The Suicidal Planet is an easy read for those seeking a quick overview of practical ways to slow down global warming. But it has a few limitations, so readers should take it as a provocative starting point for an even deeper dialogue.